The Stereotype of the Moderate Swing Voter Is Fading—Today’s Swing Voters Look Different.
. Known as “low-information voters,” these individuals often aren’t disengaged because they don’t care—it’s because their time is consumed with everyday life. They’re busy streaming their favorite shows, juggling work, and taking care of their kids.
How did Democrats prioritize these voters this cycle? Well, the Democratic Party has a model for every issue, even the likelihood someone supports urbanization but doesn't have a model for the likelihood someone is a low-information voter. Yes, you’re reading that right, we didn’t even have a way to model and target the biggest block of persuasion voters.
Over the past few months, I’ve become obsessed with understanding low-information voters. Below, I’ll share what I’ve discovered about low-information voters, how campaigns can better engage with them, and why prioritizing targeting strategies is critical for future success.
One disclaimer: While our institutions and infrastructure have failed campaigns in targeting and reaching these voters, there are plenty of people across Democratic politics who have been focused on reaching low-information voters. I’ve spoken with some of them in my search and owe a lot of gratitude to Hal Malchow for focusing on this topic in his last book,.
What is a Low-Information Voter?
I’ve struggled with this definition for some time. Partly, I’ve struggled because information level is a scale and also hard to identify among voters. I’ve also struggled with this, because naming these voters “low-information” plays into the Republican attack that Democrats are elitist. However, this space calls for more nuance and being low-information clearly doesn’t align with intellect, it aligns with the voters prioritization and interest in politics. That’s how I will attempt to define them here, voters who don’t have interest in or prioritize politics.
Characteristics of Low-Information Voters
Defining and identifying low-information voters can be complex, as this group doesn’t fit neatly into a single category. I’ve talked with consultants and pollsters and gathered several approaches to better understand and identify these voters. Here are some of the ways we can identify these voters, along with their advantages and limitations:
Primary and low-turnout voting patterns
Advantage: Examining voting history is a reliable way to exclude highly engaged voters from being classified as low-information. Data on voter turnout in primaries and low-turnout elections is readily available to campaigns, making it an efficient filtering tool.
Limitation: This only eliminates a and acts as a process of elimination. Some low-information voters do participate in presidential primaries which means relying solely on this method risks missing part of the target audience.
Demographic indicators
Advantage: Demographic data, such as age and education level, is often included in voter files and provides a starting point for analysis. Older voters are more likely to consume political content through traditional media like cable news, while those with advanced degrees tend to engage more frequently with news overall.
Limitation: Demographic indicators are far from perfect indicators and should be used cautiously. Additionally, this approach primarily narrows the pool but doesn't directly identify low-information voters.
Media consumption
Advantage: Polling voters about their media habits can reveal patterns in how they consume information and how politically engaged they are. This method helps campaigns start segmenting their target audience and identify persuadable low-information voters.
Limitation: This is semi-expensive and only tells you who in that poll might be low-information. You are limited in how much you can extrapolate the results from a small poll into a larger electorate.
Media consumption at scale
Advantage: Large-scale surveys that combine media consumption data with demographic information can provide a detailed picture of the low-information voter universe. This approach allows campaigns to identify both persuadable voters and the best channels to reach them.
Limitation: This is incredibly expensive and only viable for large statewide or presidential campaigns.
What are some characteristics or ways we can identify low-information voters? Share your thoughts below.
Low-Information Voters are More Persuadable
Over the past few years, I’ve had the opportunity to work on down-ballot, primary, and municipal campaigns. The impact of this work has often felt greater than my experience with larger statewide campaigns. Why? Because voters in these races typically have limited information about the candidates. When you’re able to introduce the candidate and frame the election from a local perspective you’re able to have more impact from a campaign.
But don’t just take my word for it—there’s compelling research that supports this idea. In Chapter 9 of his book Reinventing Political Advertising, Hal Malchow highlights studies that illustrate the persuadability of low-information voters:
NEA study of educational mail in 2010 New Mexico Governor’s race by Analyst Institute: The NEA sent educational mail to its membership list and then surveyed recipients. Among those who knew which party controlled Congress (66% of respondents), there was only a 0.6% shift in support. In contrast, those who didn’t know showed a striking 18.8% shift—underscoring how information gaps can amplify campaign influence.
The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections by Sides, Vavreck and Warshaw: This study measured the impact of TV ads across different levels of elections. Ads moved votes by just 0.002% in presidential races, 0.004% in U.S. Senate races, 0.2% in Attorney General races, and 0.3% in State Treasurer races. The trend is clear: as voter familiarity with the race decreases, the impact of ads increases.
League of Conservation Voters study of 2016 U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania by Analyst Institute: This experiment revealed a correlation between voter turnout propensity and advertising impact. Voters with a turnout probability of 80% or less moved by 16 percentage points after exposure to ads, while those with a higher turnout probability showed no measurable shift.
Beyond experiments, recent polling data reinforces the idea that low-information voters are more persuadable. An found that while most voters had made up their minds (only 5% were undecided), a notable 15% of those with “no news consumption” were still undecided—more than any other group.
This past cycle, the Harris campaign faced criticism for campaigning with Liz Cheney. While I do think Harris managed to win over some news-consuming conservative voters by appealing directly to them on Democracy, the data overwhelmingly suggests that the majority of persuadable voters are low-information voters—not the stereotypical moderate voter who has moderate views across most issues. This evidence has driven me to dig deeper over the past few months. If such clear proof exists, why aren’t we investing in more systematic strategies to identify, target, and engage these voters?
Targeting & Reaching Swing Voters
Editor’s note: From here onward I will call low-information voters swing voters since they are the biggest bloc of swing voters.
In today’s shifting media landscape, meeting swing voters where they spend their time is more crucial than ever for progressive campaigns aiming to win tight races. These voters are not watching cable news or reading in-depth op-eds. Instead, they are consuming content on platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Meta, far removed from traditional broadcast networks.
The media habits of swing voters reflect broader trends: not only do they consume less political content, but they also consume less content overall across all communication channels. This creates both a challenge and an opportunity for campaigns. Reaching them requires tailored strategies that go beyond traditional outreach.
As Democrats look to 2026 and beyond, understanding the media habits and consumption patterns of swing voters is paramount. Targeting them effectively will require not only creative use of existing communication tools but also a concerted effort to adapt to the platforms and spaces where they are most active.
Where Swing Voters Hang Out
A this year shows a clear picture. Swing voters are on Youtube, Meta and TikTok, and much less likely to be found on Broadcast networks.
Another clear trend you’ll see among swing voters is that they don’t just consume less political news, they consume less content across every channel. This factor will become important as Democrats think about reaching these voters.
. What they found is revealing.
The swing vote in 2024 skewed younger, and more Black and Hispanic, than usual, the survey found. And crucially, a disproportionate share of those undecided or swayable voters could be found on streaming services. Roughly half of them used such services exclusively, and another third used streaming in addition to more traditional television.
The Trump super PAC team drew up a plan to target these so-called streaming persuadables relentlessly. It worked with political modelers to pair the polling data with consumer information and match it to the voter rolls in the seven swing states.
The end result was an actual list of 6.3 million individual voters. It amounted to the team’s best guess of the universe of undecided voters who would ultimately decide the 2024 election — and now it could target them on streaming television, in their mailboxes, by phone and at their doors.
A Caution for Democrats
Living in Texas, I have heard the phrase ‘demographics are destiny for the state’ many times. After this last cycle that argument should be dead. Yes— there are Democrats who don’t vote that we need to turn out, BUT— we can not assume low-propensity voters of color will vote for Democrats. As I and as the Trump campaign identified, the swing voters this cycle skewed younger, and more Latino and Black.
When progressive campaigns engage low-propensity voters with high Democratic scores, persuasion remains essential. We cannot assume these voters will automatically support Democrats, nor can we rely solely on increasing turnout to achieve better outcomes. Instead, we must craft and deliver clear, compelling messages that provide a strong reason to vote for our candidates.
Targeting Swing Voters
Campaigns have a variety of tools at their disposal to connect with voters, each offering unique opportunities to engage low-information voters. Here’s how campaigns can leverage these modes effectively and the current state of being able to target swing voters:
Television: Campaigns can target broad audiences using regional, demographic, and program-specific data. Ads placed during high-viewership, non-political programming like reality TV shows, sports events, and local news segments (e.g., Dancing with the Stars or football games) can effectively reach low-information voters.
Online Digital Ads: Digital platforms provide targeting tools to identify low-information voters based on browsing behavior, search history, and engagement patterns.
CTV and OTT (Streaming Services): Streaming services allow for hyper-targeted advertising using viewer profiles, subscription types, and viewing habits. Campaigns can target low-information voters by identifying their preferred content categories, such as popular sitcoms, dramas, or family-oriented shows.
YouTube: Campaigns can leverage audience segmentation tools to target users based on their viewing history and search terms. Pre-roll ads before entertainment or lifestyle videos are effective in reaching low-information voters who do not actively seek political content.
Social Media (X, Meta, TikTok, etc.): Social media platforms enable micro-targeting with detailed behavioral, geographic, and demographic data. Some platforms allow for a 1:1 match with the voter file. With a low-information voter model, campaigns can create a targeted universe, match it to the platform, and generate a look-alike universe for additional outreach.
Earned Media: Campaigns can reach voters organically through news coverage, interviews, and op-eds. Influencer content is increasingly important for low-information voters, serving as a modern form of earned media. For instance, Trump’s Rogan interview garnered millions more views than Harris’s 60-Minutes interview, demonstrating the power of influencer-driven outreach.
Radio Ads: Campaigns can use radio to target voters based on station format and listener demographics. Non-political programming like music, sports talk, or community-focused shows can effectively reach low-information voters.
Field Operations (Door Knocking, Texting, Calls): These direct, personal methods allow campaigns to reach low-information voters with tailored messages. By using a low-information voter model to refine the voter universe, campaigns can ensure targeted and efficient outreach through doors, calls, and texts.
Direct Mail: Mail remains one of the most effective campaign communication methods. Like field operations, mail uses the voter file for targeting. With a low-information voter model, campaigns can precisely target swing voters with personalized messages through this channel.
The Importance of a Low-Information Voter Model
A robust low-information voter model combines data from multiple sources—voter history, demographics, and media consumption habits—to create a comprehensive profile of this swing voter. Such a model enables campaigns to focus their resources where they can make the most impact, tailoring messages to voters who are both reachable and persuadable. By systematically identifying these voters, campaigns can deliver coordinated messaging across multiple communication modes, ensuring consistent outreach that resonates with their values and priorities. Without this framework, campaigns risk missing a significant opportunity to sway one of the most influential voter groups in tight elections.
Messaging to Swing Voters
Now that we’ve covered how to better target and find these swing voters we need to prioritize how to communicate with them. There is a lot of research and testing that needs to be done in this field, but I believe there are two important and consistent distinctions among swing voters.
Anti-Establishment Attitudes
Low-information voters, often swing voters, tend to lean heavily on anti-establishment sentiments. Their skepticism toward traditional power structures and elites stems from a broader cultural narrative that pits "ordinary people" against institutions perceived as disconnected, bureaucratic, or self-serving. For decades, Democrats were positioned as the party of the working person, who fought for better wages, healthcare and quality of life. But in recent years, the dynamic has shifted, and the Democratic Party has increasingly become perceived as the establishment party—a transition accelerated by COVID-19 and Donald Trump’s presidency.
The Democratic Party as the Establishment
The COVID-19 pandemic solidified Democrats' association with institutions. Democratic leaders became the face of public health mandates, lockdowns, and vaccine distribution efforts. While these measures were necessary and supported by scientific consensus, they also reinforced the perception that Democrats were aligned with bureaucracies and technocratic solutions. For many voters, especially those disconnected from political nuance, this made the Democratic Party synonymous with government control and top-down decision-making.
Simultaneously, Donald Trump capitalized on anti-establishment rhetoric, branding himself as the ultimate outsider fighting against "the swamp." His messaging resonated deeply with low-information voters who were frustrated with government inefficiencies or frustrated by the perceived overreach of pandemic-era policies. Even in his 2024 campaign, Trump continues to leverage this narrative, portraying Democrats as the party of elites, regulations, and mandates—making them an easy target for those with anti-establishment views.
Another point for consideration here is the kind of candidates that do well. What U.S. Senate candidates outperformed Harris the most this cycle? Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown and Ruben Gallego. Among that group a farmer and combat Veteran, but all of those candidates give off anti-establishment vibes. It’s important for Democrats going forward to recruit candidates with diverse working backgrounds who have compelling personal stories that reinforce the anti-establishment roots of the Party. We won’t be able to change the brand of our party without those candidates having voices in it.
Improving Their Bottom Line
Joe Rogan, (a crane operator from Washington), and Theo Von—what do these three have in common? Despite their vastly different backgrounds and professions, they all share an affinity for two seemingly opposite political figures: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.
This intersection of pro-Trump and pro-Bernie sentiment may seem contradictory, but it reflects a deeper dissatisfaction with the status quo. These voters prioritize candidates who offer bold, disruptive solutions that promise to improve their bottom line. They value authenticity, even if it comes with flaws, and they want someone who appears to genuinely care about the struggles of everyday Americans.
While the exact size of this pro-Trump, pro-Bernie voter universe is unclear, the fact that it exists at all is telling. It underscores a growing trend of frustration with establishment politics and a hunger for candidates who can connect on an economic and cultural level. These voters aren’t loyal to one party or ideology—they’re loyal to their own interests and their sense of who will fight for them.
Ideas to Consider Moving into 2026
As Democrats look to rebound in 2026, there will undoubtedly be debates over what kind of candidates and policies to embrace. Some on the left will argue for more progressive and populist candidates, while others in the establishment wing will advocate for more moderate figures. Every race, district, and election has their own needs, but swing voters are not as ideologically moderate as we often assume. I’d argue, they are driven by candidates who come across as authentic, relatable, and genuinely invested in fighting for their interests.
But modeling alone may not be sufficient. Democrats should consider prioritizing research and message testing to explore more effective ways to connect with these voters. While there are indications that swing voters often respond well to simple, direct messaging that avoids political jargon and speaks to their core concerns—such as improving their economic prospects, challenging entrenched elites, and delivering tangible results—more work is needed to validate these assumptions and refine the approach.
Engaging swing voters requires an acknowledgment that they are not necessarily unreachable or apathetic but rather disengaged from the status quo. Democrats face the challenge of not only mobilizing the base but also developing messages to engage these voters with authenticity with a stronger focus on issues that directly impact their lives. By continuing to experiment, Democrats can find a path to expanding their coalition.